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OpenAI lead left IPO·closes in 16mo

Will Morgan Stanley serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO?

YES means Morgan Stanley

24h volume
0
6,784 lifetime
Open interest
2,481
Spread
5¢
501 × 11 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
18%

A YES contract costs 23¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
82%

costs 82¢

YES bid / ask
18¢ / 23¢
NO bid / ask
77¢ / 82¢
Recent buying42% YES · 58% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask0.3975¢
  • ask43574¢
  • ask65963¢
  • ask4062¢
  • ask9.0257¢
  • ask1556¢
  • ask50026¢
  • ask1123¢
spread5¢mid 21¢
  • bid50118¢
  • bid464¢
  • bid6962¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Morgan Stanley serves as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

If two or more underwriters are presented on the cover of the final prospectus as jointly occupying the lead-left position, such that no single underwriter is uppermost-and-leftmost (for example, two names sharing equal top billing), then each such underwriter's outcome resolves to $1/(the number of tied underwriters), rounded down, for “Yes”, and “No” will be paid $1 minus the Yes value.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 3 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOPENAILEADLEFT-28JAN01B-MSX
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 107¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 42% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago18¢500bought no
10d ago18¢2.32bought no
10d ago18¢1.15bought no
20d ago26¢3.65bought yes
20d ago26¢5bought yes
1mo ago18¢494bought no
1mo ago21¢5bought yes
1mo ago24¢268bought yes
1mo ago22¢5bought yes
1mo ago17¢2bought no
1mo ago17¢5bought no
1mo ago17¢1bought no
1mo ago17¢1bought no
1mo ago17¢19bought no
1mo ago17¢3bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.