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Oscar for Best Actor·closes in 16mo

Will Tom Cruise win Best Actor at the Oscars?

YES means Tom Cruise

24h volume
2,770
119.7k lifetime
Open interest
74.9k
+65.5k over 90d
Spread
1¢
4.86 × 542 at the touch
24h range
12¢ – 59¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
15%

A YES contract costs 16¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 85¢

YES bid / ask
15¢ / 16¢
NO bid / ask
84¢ / 85¢
24h low 12¢24h high 59¢
Recent buying75% YES · 25% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask39723¢
  • ask2722¢
  • ask27021¢
  • ask5820¢
  • ask6019¢
  • ask2918¢
  • ask1817¢
  • ask54216¢
spread1¢mid 16¢
  • bid4.8615¢
  • bid2614¢
  • bid3113¢
  • bid8112¢
  • bid17811¢
  • bid19610¢
  • bid589¢
  • bid2428¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Tom Cruise has won Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99 Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 19 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARACTO-27-TOM
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 75% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1h ago15¢7bought no
1h ago15¢1.07bought no
2h ago15¢4bought no
2h ago15¢1bought no
2h ago15¢1bought no
2h ago15¢6.15bought no
3h ago16¢15bought yes
5h ago15¢6.7bought no
5h ago15¢13bought no
5h ago16¢30bought yes
5h ago16¢20bought yes
6h ago16¢37bought yes
6h ago17¢32bought yes
6h ago17¢2.57bought yes
6h ago17¢9.53bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.