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Oscar for Best Cinematography·closes in 16mo

Will Project Hail Mary win Best Cinematography at the Oscars?

YES means Project Hail Mary

24h volume
0
839 lifetime
Open interest
839
+401 over 30d
Spread
3¢
103 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
16 recent trades
Chance of YES
5%

A YES contract costs 7¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
95%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 7¢
NO bid / ask
93¢ / 96¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢volAug 26Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4991¢
  • ask157¢
  • ask3955¢
  • ask452¢
  • ask21551¢
  • ask27150¢
  • ask125¢
  • ask2007¢
spread3¢mid 5¢
  • bid1034¢
  • bid151¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Project Hail Mary has won Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 5 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARCINE-27-PRO
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 99¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 16 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago5¢5bought yes
4d ago7¢13bought yes
9d ago8¢117bought yes
13d ago5¢15bought yes
14d ago5¢200bought yes
14d ago7¢15bought yes
22d ago7¢35bought yes
26d ago6¢200bought yes
1mo ago6¢5bought yes
1mo ago7¢1bought yes
1mo ago10¢1bought yes
1mo ago6¢200bought yes
1mo ago9¢1bought yes
1mo ago11¢10bought yes
1mo ago8¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.