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Best Original Screenplay·closes in 16mo

2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?

YES means The Black Ball

24h volume
0
3,028 lifetime
Open interest
2,376
+0 over 7d
Spread
8¢
10 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
12 recent trades
Chance of YES
9%

A YES contract costs 18¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
91%

costs 90¢

YES bid / ask
10¢ / 18¢
NO bid / ask
82¢ / 90¢
Recent buying80% YES · 20% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢volSep 15Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask47584¢
  • ask1,00048¢
  • ask9047¢
  • ask4645¢
  • ask1644¢
  • ask19130¢
  • ask20019¢
  • ask518¢
spread8¢mid 14¢
  • bid1010¢
  • bid2009¢
  • bid7392¢
  • bid1,3341¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If The Black Ball has been nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
May 28 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARNOMSPLAY-27-BLA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 12 trades, 80% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
8d ago9¢200bought no
8d ago30¢197bought yes
8d ago18¢200bought yes
9d ago10¢368bought yes
9d ago30¢112bought yes
9d ago12¢200bought yes
19d ago8¢95bought no
19d ago10¢90bought yes
19d ago9¢5bought yes
1mo ago10¢43bought yes
1mo ago9¢5bought yes
2mo ago7¢2.14bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.