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Best Original Screenplay·closes in 16mo

2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?

YES means The Debut

24h volume
201
2,741 lifetime
Open interest
1,710
−89 over 7d
Spread
6¢
220 × 15 at the touch
24h range
81¢ – 82¢
45 recent trades
Chance of YES
81%−8

A YES contract costs 82¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
19%

costs 24¢

YES bid / ask
76¢ / 82¢
NO bid / ask
18¢ / 24¢
24h low 81¢24h high 82¢
Recent buying82% YES · 18% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢75¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4494¢
  • ask1393¢
  • ask20689¢
  • ask388¢
  • ask20083¢
  • ask1582¢
spread6¢mid 79¢
  • bid22076¢
  • bid46025¢
  • bid34324¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If The Debut has been nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 4 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARNOMSPLAY-27-DEB
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 45 trades, 82% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12h ago81¢179bought no
12h ago82¢7bought no
12h ago82¢15bought no
6d ago89¢97bought yes
6d ago88¢15bought yes
7d ago85¢15bought no
7d ago83¢20bought no
7d ago84¢3bought no
7d ago84¢22bought no
7d ago90¢29bought yes
7d ago91¢7.73bought yes
7d ago90¢3bought yes
7d ago89¢15bought yes
7d ago82¢0.54bought yes
7d ago81¢1.2bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.