galdor.xyz
Admin
Oscar for Best Supporting Actress·closes in 16mo

Will Penélope Cruz win Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars?

YES means Penélope Cruz

24h volume
0
8,407 lifetime
Open interest
4,531
+0 over 24h
Spread
4¢
15 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
16%

A YES contract costs 17¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
84%

costs 87¢

YES bid / ask
13¢ / 17¢
NO bid / ask
83¢ / 87¢
Recent buying78% YES · 22% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask46539¢
  • ask4838¢
  • ask5537¢
  • ask4136¢
  • ask15532¢
  • ask2831¢
  • ask25018¢
  • ask517¢
spread4¢mid 15¢
  • bid1513¢
  • bid1612¢
  • bid26711¢
  • bid5010¢
  • bid0.767¢
  • bid1766¢
  • bid255¢
  • bid1024¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Penélope Cruz has won Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 11 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARSUPACTR-27-PEN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 116¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 78% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago16¢118bought yes
3d ago21¢9.02bought yes
3d ago19¢125bought yes
3d ago19¢15bought yes
4d ago15¢5bought no
4d ago14¢1.01bought no
4d ago15¢5.99bought no
4d ago19¢50bought yes
5d ago32¢0.29bought yes
5d ago31¢0.68bought yes
5d ago31¢26bought yes
5d ago31¢20bought yes
5d ago12¢3.07bought yes
5d ago13¢250bought yes
5d ago11¢500bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.