WHO WILL BE CHARACTER IN JAMES BOND·closes in 52mo

Will Idris Elba perform as M in the next James Bond film?

YES means Idris Elba

24h volume
0
29 lifetime
Open interest
4.96
+3.96 over 30d
Spread
1.96 × 100 at the touch
24h range
12¢ – 13¢
Chance of YES
12%

A YES contract costs 14¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
88%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask
/ 14¢
NO bid / ask
86¢ / 94¢
24h low 12¢24h high 13¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volAug 22Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask14058¢
  • ask5057¢
  • ask12754¢
  • ask10014¢
spreadmid 10¢
  • bid1.96
  • bid100
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Idris Elba performs/ is announced as M in the next James Bond film, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this Contract, Idris Elba satisfies the Payout Criterion if either: Official Announcement: Idris Elba is officially announced, confirmed, or publicly credited as cast to perform M in the next James Bond film, regardless of whether the performance ultimately occurs; OR Actual Performance: Idris Elba appears on stage, on screen, or in recorded content as M in any official performance, showing, or release of the next James Bond film. Additional clarification(s): If the next James Bond film is entirely cancelled or abandoned before any official performance or release occurs, but Idris Elba was officially announced in M, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” If multiple people are announced for M (e.g., alternating cast, dual casting), and Idris Elba is among them, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” b The Contract may resolve to “No” prior to the Expiration Date if: (a) the next James Bond film is cancelled or completes its run without Idris Elba being announced or performing in M, or (b) another person is officially announced as the sole exclusive performer for M.

opened
Jan 8 · 11:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 2, 2030 · 4:59 AM UTC
ticker
KXPERFORMROLE007-M-IDR
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.