KXPERFORMROLEBPANTHER·closes in 28mo

Will Damson Idris perform as the main protagonist in the next theatrical film in the Black Panther franchise produced or distributed by Marvel Studios and officially recognized by Marvel Studios or Disney as the next primary Black Panther motion picture following Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022)?

YES means Damson Idris

24h volume
0
2,403 lifetime
Open interest
1,781
Spread
25¢
0 × 25 at the touch
24h range
27 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 25¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
/ 25¢
NO bid / ask
75¢ / 100¢
Recent buying69% YES · 31% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5690¢
  • ask61788¢
  • ask5060¢
  • ask2545¢
  • ask1638¢
  • ask2035¢
  • ask2330¢
  • ask2525¢
spreadmid
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Damson Idris performs/ is announced as the main protagonist in the next theatrical film in the Black Panther franchise produced or distributed by Marvel Studios and officially recognized by Marvel Studios or Disney as the next primary Black Panther motion picture following Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022), then the market resolves to Yes.

    For the purposes of this Contract, Damson Idris satisfies the Payout Criterion if either: Official Announcement: Damson Idris is officially announced, confirmed, or publicly credited as cast to perform the main protagonist in the next theatrical film in the Black Panther franchise produced or distributed by Marvel Studios and officially recognized by Marvel Studios or Disney as the next primary Black Panther motion picture following Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022), regardless of whether the performance ultimately occurs; OR Actual Performance: Damson Idris appears on stage, on screen, or in recorded content as the main protagonist in any official performance, showing, or release of the next theatrical film in the Black Panther franchise produced or distributed by Marvel Studios and officially recognized by Marvel Studios or Disney as the next primary Black Panther motion picture following Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022). Additional clarification(s): If the next theatrical film in the Black Panther franchise produced or distributed by Marvel Studios and officially recognized by Marvel Studios or Disney as the next primary Black Panther motion picture following Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022) is entirely cancelled or abandoned before any official performance or release occurs, but Damson Idris was officially announced in the main protagonist, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” If multiple people are announced for the main protagonist (e.g., alternating cast, dual casting), and Damson Idris is among them, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” b The Contract may resolve to “No” prior to the Expiration Date if: (a) the next theatrical film in the Black Panther franchise produced or distributed by Marvel Studios and officially recognized by Marvel Studios or Disney as the next primary Black Panther motion picture following Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022) is cancelled or completes its run without Damson Idris being announced or performing in the main protagonist, or (b) another person is officially announced as the sole exclusive performer for the main protagonist.

    opened
    May 30 · 2:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Dec 31, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 2, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC
    ticker
    KXPERFORMROLEBPANTHER-BP-DAM
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    This event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    This is the only market in its event.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 27 trades, 69% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    10d ago14bought yes
    10d ago48bought yes
    28d ago33bought yes
    2mo ago46bought no
    2mo ago22bought no
    2mo ago63bought no
    2mo ago3.64bought no
    2mo ago95bought no
    2mo ago4.68bought no
    2mo ago4.15bought no
    2mo ago5bought no
    2mo ago5bought no
    2mo ago93bought no
    2mo ago66¢16bought yes
    2mo ago65¢4.15bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.