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WHO WILL PERFORM Miles Morales·closes in 28mo

Will Justice Smith perform as Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales?

YES means Justice Smith

24h volume
0
273 lifetime
Open interest
113
Spread
94¢
100 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 95¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 95¢
NO bid / ask
5¢ / 99¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,00098¢
  • ask20097¢
  • ask1396¢
  • ask595¢
spread94¢mid 48¢
  • bid1001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Justice Smith performs/ is announced as Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this Contract, Justice Smith satisfies the Payout Criterion if either: Official Announcement: Justice Smith is officially announced, confirmed, or publicly credited as cast to perform Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales, regardless of whether the performance ultimately occurs; OR Actual Performance: Justice Smith appears on stage, on screen, or in recorded content as Miles Morales in any official performance, showing, or release of The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales. Additional clarification(s): If The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales is entirely cancelled or abandoned before any official performance or release occurs, but Justice Smith was officially announced in Miles Morales, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” If multiple people are announced for Miles Morales (e.g., alternating cast, dual casting), and Justice Smith is among them, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” b The Contract may resolve to “No” prior to the Expiration Date if: (a) The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales is cancelled or completes its run without Justice Smith being announced or performing in Miles Morales, or (b) another person is officially announced as the sole exclusive performer for Miles Morales.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 13 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 30, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC
ticker
KXPERFORMROLEMILESMORALES-JUS
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.