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Wild polio eliminated·closes in 40mo

Will there be a year with zero wild polio cases before 2030?

YES means Before 2030

24h volume
11
41.9k lifetime
Open interest
18.0k
+0 over 7d
Spread
4¢
31 × 100 at the touch
24h range
4¢ – 4¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 96¢
24h low 4¢24h high 4¢
Recent buying47% YES · 53% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1020¢
  • ask615¢
  • ask3513¢
  • ask2,00010¢
  • ask5010¢
  • ask15110¢
  • ask259¢
  • ask1008¢
spread4¢mid 6¢
  • bid314¢
  • bid1344¢
  • bid1,2504¢
  • bid5,0004¢
  • bid1,5003¢
  • bid5,0003¢
  • bid1,0003¢
  • bid5,0013¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If there is any year between 2024 and 2029 in which there are zero reported wild cases of poliovirus 1, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 18, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPOLIOELIM-30
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 47% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
18h ago4¢11bought no
2d ago4¢150bought no
10d ago8¢1bought yes
10d ago4¢11bought no
12d ago4¢37bought no
13d ago4¢61bought no
13d ago8¢37bought yes
14d ago8¢61bought yes
14d ago8¢2bought yes
14d ago8¢1bought yes
14d ago8¢2bought yes
17d ago5¢98bought no
19d ago8¢2.09bought yes
19d ago8¢1bought yes
20d ago5¢2.09bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.