Will there be a year with zero wild polio cases before 2030?
YES means Before 2030
- 24h volume
- 11
- 41.9k lifetime
- Open interest
- 18.0k
- +0 over 24h
- Spread
- 4¢
- 31 × 100 at the touch
- 24h range
- 4¢ – 4¢
- 50 recent trades
A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 96¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
Order book unavailable.
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If there is any year between 2024 and 2029 in which there are zero reported wild cases of poliovirus 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
- opened
- Dec 18, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXPOLIOELIM-30
This event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
This is the only market in its event.
Recent trades
Over the last 50 trades, 47% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19h ago | 4¢ | 11 | bought no |
| 2d ago | 4¢ | 150 | bought no |
| 10d ago | 8¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 10d ago | 4¢ | 11 | bought no |
| 12d ago | 4¢ | 37 | bought no |
| 13d ago | 4¢ | 61 | bought no |
| 13d ago | 8¢ | 37 | bought yes |
| 14d ago | 8¢ | 61 | bought yes |
| 14d ago | 8¢ | 2 | bought yes |
| 14d ago | 8¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 14d ago | 8¢ | 2 | bought yes |
| 17d ago | 5¢ | 98 | bought no |
| 19d ago | 8¢ | 2.09 | bought yes |
| 19d ago | 8¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 20d ago | 5¢ | 2.09 | bought no |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.