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Mamdani population change in NYC ·closes in 21mo

Will New York City experience population increase between 0.01% and 0.99% during 2025-2027?

YES means Increase 0.01-0.99%

24h volume
8.97
14.1k lifetime
Open interest
5,639
−47 over 30d
Spread
4¢
200 × 5 at the touch
24h range
37¢ – 46¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
43%−1

A YES contract costs 42¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
57%

costs 62¢

YES bid / ask
38¢ / 42¢
NO bid / ask
58¢ / 62¢
24h low 37¢24h high 46¢
Recent buying18% YES · 82% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
35¢40¢45¢50¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5572¢
  • ask15571¢
  • ask1370¢
  • ask4569¢
  • ask32146¢
  • ask21444¢
  • ask9543¢
  • ask542¢
spread4¢mid 40¢
  • bid20038¢
  • bid4637¢
  • bid10033¢
  • bid3.1917¢
  • bid8712¢
  • bid4810¢
  • bid6129¢
  • bid148¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If New York City experiences a population increase of between 0.01% and 0.99% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Population change is calculated as ((July 2027 Population - July 2025 Population) / July 2025 Population) × 100, rounded to one decimal place. The market resolves based on official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography. If the geography is split into multiple entities during the time period, the combined population of all successor entities will be used. Preliminary counts or estimates are valid if final data is not available by expiration. If data is unavailable by the latest expiration date, all strikes resolve to No. For temporal markets, the market checks cumulative population change from the start of the time period to each potential resolution date.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 8, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jun 1, 2028 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jun 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
floor
0.01
cap
0.99
ticker
KXPOPCHANGENYC-28JUN01-NYC-0.01-0.99
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 18% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago42¢2.23bought yes
2h ago43¢2.28bought yes
9h ago39¢2.23bought no
10h ago43¢2.23bought yes
1d ago44¢11bought yes
2d ago37¢13bought no
2d ago37¢2.13bought no
3d ago37¢1.54bought no
3d ago45¢2.13bought yes
3d ago39¢3.19bought no
3d ago44¢6.56bought yes
3d ago44¢30bought yes
4d ago44¢11bought yes
4d ago44¢2.18bought yes
4d ago37¢8bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.