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Mamdani population change in NYC ·closes in 21mo

Will New York City experience population increase between -1.99% and -1% during 2025-2027?

YES means Decrease 1-1.99%

24h volume
0
10.3k lifetime
Open interest
6,487
Spread
5¢
200 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
16 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 97¢
Recent buying81% YES · 19% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask12854¢
  • ask60748¢
  • ask22747¢
  • ask15345¢
  • ask5044¢
  • ask7.310¢
  • ask3009¢
  • ask58¢
spread5¢mid 5¢
  • bid2003¢
  • bid1362¢
  • bid1001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If New York City experiences a population increase of between -1.99% and -1% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Population change is calculated as ((July 2027 Population - July 2025 Population) / July 2025 Population) × 100, rounded to one decimal place. The market resolves based on official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography. If the geography is split into multiple entities during the time period, the combined population of all successor entities will be used. Preliminary counts or estimates are valid if final data is not available by expiration. If data is unavailable by the latest expiration date, all strikes resolve to No. For temporal markets, the market checks cumulative population change from the start of the time period to each potential resolution date.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 8, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jun 1, 2028 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jun 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
floor
-1.99
cap
-1
ticker
KXPOPCHANGENYC-28JUN01-NYC-1.99-1N
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 16 trades, 81% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago2¢1.54bought no
12d ago11¢26bought yes
15d ago11¢8.55bought yes
17d ago11¢8.55bought yes
22d ago3¢6bought no
1mo ago28¢36bought yes
1mo ago45¢21bought yes
1mo ago11¢7bought yes
1mo ago11¢0.3bought yes
1mo ago9¢30bought yes
1mo ago5¢5bought no
2mo ago9¢10bought yes
2mo ago7¢40bought no
2mo ago10¢47bought yes
2mo ago5¢17bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.