galdor.xyz
Admin
Mamdani population change in NYC ·closes in 21mo

Will New York City experience population increase between 2% and 2.99% during 2025-2027?

YES means Increase 2-2.99%

24h volume
0
6,332 lifetime
Open interest
4,311
+0 over 7d
Spread
3¢
0 × 505 at the touch
24h range
–
1 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%

A YES contract costs 3¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 3¢
NO bid / ask
97¢ / 100¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 17, 5:00 PMSep 19, 3:00 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask56596¢
  • ask4395¢
  • ask3159¢
  • ask45341¢
  • ask66540¢
  • ask14737¢
  • ask115¢
  • ask5053¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If New York City experiences a population increase of between 2% and 2.99% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Population change is calculated as ((July 2027 Population - July 2025 Population) / July 2025 Population) × 100, rounded to one decimal place. The market resolves based on official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography. If the geography is split into multiple entities during the time period, the combined population of all successor entities will be used. Preliminary counts or estimates are valid if final data is not available by expiration. If data is unavailable by the latest expiration date, all strikes resolve to No. For temporal markets, the market checks cumulative population change from the start of the time period to each potential resolution date.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Nov 8, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Jun 1, 2028 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jun 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
    floor
    2
    cap
    2.99
    ticker
    KXPOPCHANGENYC-28JUN01-NYC-2-2.99
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 1 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    15d ago3¢31bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.