Will New York City experience population decrease 3% or more during 2025-2027?
YES means Decrease 3% or more
- 24h volume
- 1
- 8,995 lifetime
- Open interest
- 5,643
- −298 over 30d
- Spread
- 5¢
- 99 × 469 at the touch
- 24h range
- 1¢ – 6¢
- 10 recent trades
A YES contract costs 6¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 99¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask1677¢
- ask2,48576¢
- ask55075¢
- ask1,01956¢
- ask4755¢
- ask22243¢
- ask4042¢
- ask4696¢
- bid991¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If New York City experiences a population increase of between -3% or less between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Population change is calculated as ((July 2027 Population - July 2025 Population) / July 2025 Population) × 100, rounded to one decimal place. The market resolves based on official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography. If the geography is split into multiple entities during the time period, the combined population of all successor entities will be used. Preliminary counts or estimates are valid if final data is not available by expiration. If data is unavailable by the latest expiration date, all strikes resolve to No. For temporal markets, the market checks cumulative population change from the start of the time period to each potential resolution date.
- opened
- Nov 8, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Jun 1, 2028 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jun 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
- cap
- -3
- ticker
- KXPOPCHANGENYC-28JUN01-NYC-3-NAN
This event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
This is the only market in its event.
Recent trades
Over the last 10 trades, 37% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7h ago | 1¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 1d ago | 1¢ | 113 | bought no |
| 1d ago | 2¢ | 100 | bought no |
| 3d ago | 1¢ | 1.54 | bought no |
| 9d ago | 1¢ | 100 | bought no |
| 15d ago | 6¢ | 16 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 6¢ | 31 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 1¢ | 9 | bought no |
| 2mo ago | 1¢ | 83 | bought no |
| 2mo ago | 5¢ | 188 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.