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Pop change state 10·closes in 125mo

Will experience a population decrease of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035?

YES means Between 2025 and 2035?

24h volume
0
3,262 lifetime
Open interest
1,954
Spread
4¢
365 × 105 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
21%

A YES contract costs 19¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
79%

costs 85¢

YES bid / ask
15¢ / 19¢
NO bid / ask
81¢ / 85¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2081¢
  • ask1365¢
  • ask20056¢
  • ask2555¢
  • ask48654¢
  • ask20024¢
  • ask7822¢
  • ask10519¢
spread4¢mid 17¢
  • bid36515¢
  • bid21013¢
  • bid409¢
  • bid135¢
  • bid1464¢
  • bid3903¢
  • bid3,3252¢
  • bid3,0001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any U.S. state experiences a population decrease of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 13, 2025 · 8:45 PM UTC
closes
Dec 30, 2036 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2035 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPOPCHANGESTATE10-35
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.