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Democratic Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Elizabeth Warren be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party?

YES means Elizabeth Warren

24h volume
91.6k
2.00M lifetime
Open interest
1.93M
+97.3k over 7d
Spread
0¢
0 × 239.9k at the touch
24h range
0¢ – 0¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 0¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 0¢
NO bid / ask
100¢ / 100¢
24h low 0¢24h high 0¢
Recent buying54% YES · 46% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask22.5k1¢
  • ask20.0k1¢
  • ask24.7k1¢
  • ask155.0k1¢
  • ask191.0k0¢
  • ask470.0k0¢
  • ask938.3k0¢
  • ask239.9k0¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Elizabeth Warren wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Apr 1 · 7:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXPRESNOMD-28-EWAR
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    This event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    This is the only market in its event.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 50 trades, 54% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    5h ago0¢91.6kbought yes
    2d ago0¢916bought yes
    2d ago0¢458bought yes
    3d ago0¢2,500bought yes
    6d ago0¢1,832bought yes
    6d ago0¢4,580bought yes
    7d ago0¢458bought yes
    7d ago0¢916bought yes
    9d ago0¢935bought yes
    10d ago0¢1,017bought yes
    11d ago0¢93.5kbought yes
    11d ago0¢935bought yes
    12d ago0¢19bought yes
    13d ago0¢458bought yes
    15d ago0¢47bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.