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Democratic Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Raphael Warnock be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

YES means Raphael Warnock

24h volume
0
4.26M lifetime
Open interest
3.14M
Spread
0¢
44.5k × 49.3k at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask50.0k1¢
  • ask16.7k1¢
  • ask921¢
  • ask31.4k1¢
  • ask40.8k1¢
  • ask101.1k1¢
  • ask22.2k1¢
  • ask49.3k1¢
spread0¢mid 1¢
  • bid44.5k1¢
  • bid51.3k0¢
  • bid84.1k0¢
  • bid121.8k0¢
  • bid10.04M0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Raphael Warnock wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMD-28-RW
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.