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Libertarian Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Dave Smith be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?

YES means Dave Smith

24h volume
0
1,256 lifetime
Open interest
1,236
+415 over 90d
Spread
8¢
4.99 × 5 at the touch
24h range
10¢ – 98¢
Chance of YES
10%

A YES contract costs 17¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
90%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask
9¢ / 17¢
NO bid / ask
83¢ / 91¢
24h low 10¢24h high 98¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volJun 24Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask11.0k100¢
  • ask5099¢
  • ask1,68993¢
  • ask24793¢
  • ask20018¢
  • ask517¢
spread8¢mid 13¢
  • bid4.999¢
  • bid2009¢
  • bid351¢
  • bid501¢
  • bid5011¢
  • bid1,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Dave Smith wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Libertarian party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 7 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOML-28-DSMI
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.