Will JD Vance defeat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the 2028 presidential election, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?
YES means JD Vance defeats AOC
- 24h volume
- 119
- 7,004 lifetime
- Open interest
- 5,364
- +421 over 7d
- Spread
- 1¢
- 363 × 303 at the touch
- 24h range
- 7¢ – 8¢
- 39 recent trades
A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 93¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask41025¢
- ask3822¢
- ask3719¢
- ask3516¢
- ask16015¢
- ask3413¢
- ask2111¢
- ask3038¢
- bid3637¢
- bid16¢
- bid2005¢
- bid114¢
- bid5502¢
- bid16.8k1¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If JD Vance defeats Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Democratic Nominee (PRESNOM), Republican Nominee (PRESNOM), Presidential Winner (PRESPERSON). All conditions must be satisfied the 2028 presidential election.
- opened
- Apr 9 · 2:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Jan 20, 2029 · 10:00 AM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Nov 7, 2028 · 10:00 AM UTC
- ticker
- KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-AOCJVANR
Other outcomes in this event
Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 107¢).
- Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance12¢
- JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom10¢
- Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance10¢
- Jon Ossoff defeats Marco Rubio8¢
- Marco Rubio defeats AOC6¢
- JD Vance defeats Kamala Harris6¢
- AOC defeats JD Vance4¢
- Kamala Harris defeats JD Vance4¢
- Pete Buttigieg defeats Marco Rubio4¢
- Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio3¢
- Andy Beshear defeats JD Vance3¢
- JD Vance defeats Jon Ossoff3¢
- and 19 more
Recent trades
Over the last 39 trades, 55% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5h ago | 7¢ | 59 | bought no |
| 20h ago | 7¢ | 30 | bought no |
| 23h ago | 8¢ | 30 | bought yes |
| 1d ago | 8¢ | 59 | bought yes |
| 2d ago | 8¢ | 59 | bought yes |
| 2d ago | 8¢ | 12 | bought yes |
| 2d ago | 8¢ | 9.55 | bought yes |
| 2d ago | 8¢ | 10 | bought yes |
| 3d ago | 8¢ | 12 | bought yes |
| 4d ago | 8¢ | 59 | bought yes |
| 5d ago | 7¢ | 183 | bought yes |
| 5d ago | 7¢ | 68 | bought yes |
| 11d ago | 7¢ | 67 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 5¢ | 125 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 7¢ | 45 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.