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2028 Presidential election: exact outcome·closes in 28mo

Will Josh Shapiro defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Josh Shapiro as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?

YES means Josh Shapiro defeats Marco Rubio

24h volume
0
155 lifetime
Open interest
155
Spread
2¢
0 × 524 at the touch
24h range
–
4 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 100¢
Recent buying0% YES · 100% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2525¢
  • ask322¢
  • ask1020¢
  • ask1515¢
  • ask1510¢
  • ask239¢
  • ask2006¢
  • ask5242¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Josh Shapiro defeats Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

    This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Democratic Nominee (PRESNOM), Republican Nominee (PRESNOM), Presidential Winner (PRESPERSON). All conditions must be satisfied the 2028 presidential election.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Apr 9 · 2:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Jan 20, 2029 · 10:00 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Nov 7, 2028 · 10:00 AM UTC
    ticker
    KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-JSHAMRUBD
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    This event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    This is the only market in its event.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 4 trades, 0% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    21d ago1¢5bought no
    21d ago1¢100bought no
    2mo ago1¢45bought no
    2mo ago2¢5bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.