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Party winning presidency·closes in 38mo

Will Democratic win the Presidency in 2028?

YES means Democratic party

The nominee side is crowded: Ossoff 17¢, Ocasio-Cortez 16¢, Newsom 14¢, Harris 8¢. Nobody above 20¢ two years out is the normal shape, not a signal.
Our read · Sep 20, 2026 · 3 PM ET
24h volume
154
249.4k lifetime
Open interest
126.9k
−562 over 7d
Spread
1¢
14.6k × 29.0k at the touch
24h range
58¢ – 59¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
58%

A YES contract costs 59¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
42%

costs 42¢

YES bid / ask
58¢ / 59¢
NO bid / ask
41¢ / 42¢
24h low 58¢24h high 59¢
Recent buying58% YES · 42% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢55¢60¢65¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask7,37466¢
  • ask10065¢
  • ask25064¢
  • ask20063¢
  • ask21162¢
  • ask21661¢
  • ask56460¢
  • ask29.0k59¢
spread1¢mid 59¢
  • bid14.6k58¢
  • bid15.3k57¢
  • bid6,34856¢
  • bid6,82055¢
  • bid3,16154¢
  • bid7,70053¢
  • bid9,52852¢
  • bid250¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESPARTY-2028-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 58% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7h ago58¢86bought no
10h ago59¢58bought yes
12h ago58¢0.29bought no
22h ago58¢10bought no
1d ago58¢17bought no
2d ago59¢16bought yes
2d ago58¢5bought no
2d ago58¢49bought no
2d ago58¢33bought no
2d ago58¢80bought no
2d ago58¢80bought no
2d ago58¢80bought no
2d ago58¢1bought no
2d ago58¢8bought no
3d ago59¢0.31bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.