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Party winning presidency·closes in 38mo

Will Republican win the Presidency in 2028?

YES means Republican party

24h volume
1,406
316.9k lifetime
Open interest
152.3k
+3,367 over 7d
Spread
1¢
5,225 × 7,444 at the touch
24h range
41¢ – 42¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
42%+1

A YES contract costs 42¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
58%

costs 59¢

YES bid / ask
41¢ / 42¢
NO bid / ask
58¢ / 59¢
24h low 41¢24h high 42¢
Recent buying18% YES · 82% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
35¢40¢45¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20049¢
  • ask20048¢
  • ask2,20047¢
  • ask20046¢
  • ask2,20045¢
  • ask2,42244¢
  • ask11.8k43¢
  • ask7,44442¢
spread1¢mid 42¢
  • bid5,22541¢
  • bid22.0k40¢
  • bid20839¢
  • bid5,48138¢
  • bid1,20037¢
  • bid4,00036¢
  • bid5,00035¢
  • bid4631¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESPARTY-2028-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 18% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4h ago42¢359bought yes
4h ago42¢98bought yes
21h ago41¢2.52bought no
22h ago41¢223bought no
23h ago41¢500bought no
23h ago41¢223bought no
1d ago41¢41bought no
2d ago41¢5bought no
2d ago42¢1bought yes
2d ago42¢1bought yes
3d ago41¢1,273bought no
3d ago41¢6bought no
3d ago41¢6bought no
3d ago41¢6bought no
3d ago41¢6bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.