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Party winning presidency·closes in 85mo

Will the Republican party win the Presidency in 2032?

YES means Republican party

24h volume
0
347 lifetime
Open interest
179
−11 over 7d
Spread
4¢
173 × 128 at the touch
24h range
–
16 recent trades
Chance of YES
53%

A YES contract costs 53¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
47%

costs 51¢

YES bid / ask
49¢ / 53¢
NO bid / ask
47¢ / 51¢
Recent buying80% YES · 20% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
45¢50¢55¢volOct 29Nov 4

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask5,00097¢
  • ask10096¢
  • ask4,48291¢
  • ask1890¢
  • ask5,00054¢
  • ask12853¢
spread4¢mid 51¢
  • bid17349¢
  • bid5,00047¢
  • bid1040¢
  • bid50031¢
  • bid1030¢
  • bid146¢
  • bid5,0005¢
  • bid1004¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2033, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 15 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 2, 2033 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2033 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESPARTY-2032-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 104¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 16 trades, 80% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago53¢2bought yes
1d ago49¢2bought no
3d ago53¢13bought yes
5d ago49¢2.74bought no
5d ago49¢21bought no
7d ago53¢46bought yes
7d ago53¢46bought yes
7d ago53¢46bought yes
13d ago53¢3bought yes
13d ago53¢21bought yes
13d ago47¢1bought no
13d ago53¢1bought yes
13d ago53¢1bought yes
13d ago47¢1bought no
2mo ago47¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.