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Pres person·closes in 38mo

Who will win the next presidential election?

YES means Marco Rubio

24h volume
11.9k
5.31M lifetime
Open interest
2.38M
−1,475 over 7d
Spread
0¢
10.0k × 45.6k at the touch
24h range
10¢ – 11¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
10%+0

A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
90%

costs 90¢

YES bid / ask
10¢ / 10¢
NO bid / ask
90¢ / 90¢
24h low 10¢24h high 11¢
Recent buying93% YES · 7% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4,63514¢
  • ask30.5k13¢
  • ask120.0k12¢
  • ask5,30311¢
  • ask50.1k10¢
  • ask8.2810¢
  • ask50.0k10¢
  • ask45.6k10¢
spread0¢mid 10¢
  • bid10.0k10¢
  • bid8,00810¢
  • bid50.0k9¢
  • bid4,0009¢
  • bid179¢
  • bid3059¢
  • bid1.029¢
  • bid549¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Marco Rubio is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 10, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESPERSON-28-MRUB
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 94¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 93% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
9m ago10¢97bought yes
1h ago10¢48bought yes
2h ago10¢75bought no
2h ago10¢39bought yes
2h ago10¢95bought no
2h ago10¢242bought yes
2h ago10¢0.61bought no
2h ago10¢17bought yes
3h ago10¢78bought yes
3h ago10¢43bought no
3h ago10¢8.46bought yes
3h ago10¢256bought yes
6h ago10¢0.34bought no
6h ago10¢6.62bought no
6h ago10¢3bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.