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Pres person·closes in 38mo

Who will win the next presidential election?

YES means Tucker Carlson

24h volume
23.9k
2.73M lifetime
Open interest
1.78M
Spread
0¢
0.52 × 2,675 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%−0

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 99¢
Recent buying88% YES · 12% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4982¢
  • ask532¢
  • ask3992¢
  • ask7,9692¢
  • ask14.7k2¢
  • ask142¢
  • ask8,9351¢
  • ask2,6751¢
spread0¢mid 1¢
  • bid0.521¢
  • bid411¢
  • bid12.3k1¢
  • bid7,6911¢
  • bid20.0k1¢
  • bid14.0k1¢
  • bid104.1k1¢
  • bid5,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Tucker Carlson is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 18 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESPERSON-28-TCAR
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 94¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 88% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
51m ago1¢1bought yes
3h ago1¢0.18bought no
3h ago1¢2bought yes
3h ago1¢0.67bought yes
3h ago1¢0.01bought no
3h ago1¢2.47bought no
3h ago1¢0.01bought no
5h ago1¢10bought no
8h ago2¢0.56bought yes
8h ago2¢17bought yes
8h ago1¢6.77bought yes
8h ago1¢3.4bought yes
8h ago2¢25bought yes
8h ago2¢535bought yes
8h ago1¢7bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.