galdor.xyz
Admin
Taiwan presidential election·closes in 29mo

Who will win the next Taiwanese presidential election?

YES means William Lai

24h volume
0
7,364 lifetime
Open interest
2,564
−316 over 30d
Spread
9¢
200 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
15 recent trades
Chance of YES
55%

A YES contract costs 67¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
45%

costs 42¢

YES bid / ask
58¢ / 67¢
NO bid / ask
33¢ / 42¢
Recent buying97% YES · 3% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢volAug 26Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,000100¢
  • ask1,00098¢
  • ask78397¢
  • ask51297¢
  • ask20068¢
  • ask567¢
spread9¢mid 63¢
  • bid20058¢
  • bid38155¢
  • bid1422¢
  • bid7521¢
  • bid9518¢
  • bid7217¢
  • bid1,50316¢
  • bid40015¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the winner of the next Taiwanese presidential election is William Lai, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 30, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 31, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESTAIWAN-28-WLAI
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 68¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 15 trades, 97% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago55¢1bought no
6d ago67¢1bought yes
6d ago67¢1bought yes
6d ago67¢1bought yes
6d ago67¢1bought yes
17d ago67¢400bought yes
17d ago63¢16bought yes
17d ago67¢299bought yes
1mo ago59¢7.02bought no
2mo ago60¢12bought no
2mo ago61¢5bought no
2mo ago67¢4bought yes
2mo ago66¢5bought yes
2mo ago67¢20bought yes
2mo ago67¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.