Turkish presidential election first round·closes in 32mo

Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election?

YES means Ekrem İmamoğlu

24h volume
0
13.5k lifetime
Open interest
926
Spread
9 × 200 at the touch
24h range
6 recent trades
Chance of YES
21%

A YES contract costs 22¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
79%

costs 82¢

YES bid / ask
18¢ / 22¢
NO bid / ask
78¢ / 82¢
Recent buying75% YES · 25% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,000100¢
  • ask1,89395¢
  • ask20095¢
  • ask20022¢
spreadmid 20¢
  • bid918¢
  • bid10017¢
  • bid20013¢
  • bid105
  • bid1,551
  • bid1,000
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the winner of the first round of the next Turkish presidential election is Ekrem İmamoğlu, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
May 7, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
May 7, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESTURKEYR1-28-EIMA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 91¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 6 trades, 75% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
8d ago21¢54bought yes
20d ago16¢9bought no
21d ago17¢5bought no
24d ago20¢5bought no
24d ago20¢1bought yes
24d ago20¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.