Quebec independence·closes in 28mo

Will a date be announced for another Quebec Referendum before 2029?

YES means Before 2029

24h volume
0
3,846 lifetime
Open interest
252
Spread
10¢
200 × 200 at the touch
24h range
1 recent trades
Chance of YES
18%

A YES contract costs 27¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
82%

costs 83¢

YES bid / ask
17¢ / 27¢
NO bid / ask
73¢ / 83¢
Recent buying0% YES · 100% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If another Quebec independence referendum has a date announced (either by the Quebec provincial government or the Canadian federal government) before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The referendum's date doesn't need to be before Jan 1, 2029, a date just has to be announced before Jan 1, 2029.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 13, 2024 · 6:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXQUEBEC-29
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 1 trades, 0% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
16d ago18¢200bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.