Reconcilliation bill becoming law·closes in 16mo

Will a reconciliation bill become law before Jan 1, 2028?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2028

24h volume: 0; 0.14 lifetime
Open interest: 0.14
Spread: 8¢; 5 × 200 at the touch
24h range: –; 1 recent trades

Chance of YES

33%

A YES contract costs 35¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

67%

costs 73¢

YES bid / ask

27¢ / 35¢

NO bid / ask

65¢ / 73¢

Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask5099¢
ask1,01289¢
ask88081¢
ask20080¢
ask68679¢
ask17969¢
ask5068¢
ask20035¢

spread8¢mid 31¢

bid527¢
bid20026¢
bid387¢
bid495¢
bid3824¢
bid501¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a reconciliation bill has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

opened: Jul 22 · 7:39 PM UTC
closes: Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXRECNCBILL-26JUL-28JAN01

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 1 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

When	YES	Contracts	Side
1mo ago	33¢	0.14	bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.