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Trump recognize Taiwan·closes in 3mo

Will Trump recognize the Republic of China?

YES means Before 2027

24h volume
0
8,638 lifetime
Open interest
3,257
+0 over 24h
Spread
14¢
5 × 3,000 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
22%

A YES contract costs 16¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
78%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 16¢
NO bid / ask
84¢ / 98¢
Recent buying63% YES · 37% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢volSep 20, 7:04 AMSep 21, 2:57 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask83370¢
  • ask11666¢
  • ask5661¢
  • ask1,72158¢
  • ask1,26157¢
  • ask124¢
  • ask10020¢
  • ask3,00016¢
spread14¢mid 9¢
  • bid52¢
  • bid1141¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.

This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S. Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state. Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes. Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify. Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient. Participation alongside the entity in international conferences, humanitarian aid missions, or multilateral forums does not in itself constitute recognition as a sovereign state. Nor does U.S. abstention or vote in an international organization automatically equate to bilateral recognition.

Settlement sources
opened
May 11 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXRECOGROC-29-27
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 63% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago3¢150bought yes
2d ago4¢1bought yes
2d ago5¢1bought yes
2d ago22¢0.3bought yes
5d ago1¢312bought no
6d ago3¢0.5bought yes
7d ago3¢312bought yes
8d ago3¢312bought yes
8d ago3¢156bought yes
11d ago1¢19bought no
12d ago3¢9.56bought yes
12d ago3¢1.9bought yes
12d ago2¢8bought yes
13d ago2¢2bought no
14d ago3¢20bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.