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Trump recognize Taiwan·closes in 28mo

Will Trump recognize Somaliland?

YES means Before Jan 20, 2029

24h volume
0
29.6k lifetime
Open interest
9,075
Spread
5¢
30 × 42 at the touch
24h range
–
46 recent trades
Chance of YES
12%

A YES contract costs 15¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
88%

costs 90¢

YES bid / ask
10¢ / 15¢
NO bid / ask
85¢ / 90¢
Recent buying40% YES · 60% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3,00050¢
  • ask2,93449¢
  • ask1748¢
  • ask8845¢
  • ask20030¢
  • ask10029¢
  • ask5928¢
  • ask4215¢
spread5¢mid 13¢
  • bid3010¢
  • bid1068¢
  • bid2008¢
  • bid3617¢
  • bid1504¢
  • bid1003¢
  • bid363¢
  • bid152¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, the market resolves to Yes.

This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S. Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state. Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes. Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify. Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient. Participation alongside the entity in international conferences, humanitarian aid missions, or multilateral forums does not in itself constitute recognition as a sovereign state. Nor does U.S. abstention or vote in an international organization automatically equate to bilateral recognition.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 18, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXRECOGROC-29
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 46 trades, 40% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago12¢9bought no
3d ago11¢33bought no
7d ago15¢63bought yes
14d ago16¢59bought yes
15d ago16¢1.35bought yes
19d ago9¢100bought no
24d ago12¢5.63bought no
29d ago15¢5.32bought yes
29d ago15¢121bought yes
30d ago15¢1bought yes
30d ago14¢1bought yes
1mo ago15¢13bought yes
1mo ago14¢20bought yes
1mo ago14¢0.12bought yes
1mo ago8¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.