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Recession·closes in 4mo

Will there be a recession in 2026?

YES means Starts

24h volume
3,410
3.54M lifetime
Open interest
937.4k
+24.6k over 7d
Spread
1¢
28 × 15.4k at the touch
24h range
4¢ – 6¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
6%+1

A YES contract costs 6¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
94%

costs 95¢

YES bid / ask
5¢ / 6¢
NO bid / ask
94¢ / 95¢
24h low 4¢24h high 6¢
Recent buying44% YES · 56% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask15313¢
  • ask45112¢
  • ask14211¢
  • ask8510¢
  • ask7,1799¢
  • ask5,5708¢
  • ask12.1k7¢
  • ask15.4k6¢
spread1¢mid 6¢
  • bid285¢
  • bid5,3754¢
  • bid10.6k3¢
  • bid120.8k2¢
  • bid80.8k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 14, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 31, 2027 · 1:25 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXRECSSNBER-26
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Recession this year?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 44% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
25m ago6¢20bought yes
2h ago6¢9.25bought yes
3h ago6¢3bought yes
4h ago5¢1.72bought yes
4h ago5¢90bought yes
4h ago5¢100bought yes
4h ago5¢71bought yes
4h ago4¢16bought no
5h ago4¢104bought no
5h ago5¢184bought yes
6h ago5¢134bought no
6h ago5¢1.59bought no
6h ago5¢972bought no
6h ago5¢279bought no
6h ago6¢344bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.