Will there be a recession in 2026?
YES means Starts
- 24h volume
- 3,547
- 3.54M lifetime
- Open interest
- 937.6k
- +1,521 over 24h
- Spread
- 1¢
- 28 × 15.2k at the touch
- 24h range
- 4¢ – 6¢
A YES contract costs 6¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 95¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask15313¢
- ask45112¢
- ask14211¢
- ask8110¢
- ask7,1799¢
- ask5,5708¢
- ask12.1k7¢
- ask15.2k6¢
- bid285¢
- bid5,3754¢
- bid10.6k3¢
- bid120.8k2¢
- bid80.8k1¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.
- opened
- Jul 14, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Jan 31, 2027 · 1:25 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXRECSSNBER-26
This event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
This is the only market in Recession this year?.
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.