Redistricting·closes in 1mo

What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?

YES means Utah

24h volume
0
108.1k lifetime
Open interest
32.5k
Spread
484 × 1,089 at the touch
24h range
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
/
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 98¢
Recent buying34% YES · 66% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,000
  • ask1,300
  • ask1,000
  • ask681
  • ask1,000
  • ask2,000
  • ask150
  • ask1,089
spreadmid
  • bid484
  • bid200
  • bid884
  • bid400
  • bid550
  • bid3,003
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Utah legislature has adopted new, qualifying congressional district maps after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

These maps must be: Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; AND Not enjoined, vacated, stayed, or struck down in full by any court with jurisdiction over congressional redistricting in Utah as of the Expiration Date; AND In effect for use in the first scheduled federal election after its adoption For clarity: Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will resolve to YES if they are ultimately in effect by the Expiration Date Maps that are completely redrawn by a court or special master will resolve to NO Maps that are withdrawn by the Legislature before implementation will resolve to NO If no new maps are adopted by Nov 1, 2026, the market will resolve to NO Clarification (09/03/26): Alabama’s May 2026 legislation providing for special congressional primary elections does not constitute adoption of a new congressional district map for purposes of this Contract. The reinstatement and subsequent use of the congressional district map enacted in 2023, including its use in the August 2026 special primary, do not satisfy the Payout Criterion because that map was adopted before Issuance. This market may still resolve to “Yes” if the Alabama legislature adopts a new qualifying congressional district map before November 1, 2026 that otherwise satisfies the Payout Criterion. For the avoidance of doubt, the provision concerning maps temporarily stayed pending appeal does not make a map adopted before Issuance qualifying under the Payout Criterion.

opened
Sep 14, 2025 · 1:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 1 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 1 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXREDISTRICTING-26-UTAH
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 34% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago1,857bought yes
2d ago1,000bought no
5d ago54bought yes
5d ago42bought yes
6d ago7bought yes
9d ago47bought no
11d ago22bought no
12d ago297bought yes
12d ago422bought yes
12d ago6.69bought yes
12d ago14bought yes
12d ago6.16bought yes
12d ago4,340bought no
12d ago50bought no
12d ago102bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.