Redistricting·closes in 26mo

What states will redistrict before the 2028 Congressional elections?

YES means Pennsylvania

24h volume
0
332 lifetime
Open interest
202
Spread
11¢
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
10 recent trades
Chance of YES
45%

A YES contract costs 57¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
55%

costs 54¢

YES bid / ask
46¢ / 57¢
NO bid / ask
43¢ / 54¢
Recent buying9% YES · 91% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,40496¢
  • ask78883¢
  • ask50381¢
  • ask20080¢
  • ask20778¢
  • ask5277¢
  • ask20058¢
  • ask557¢
spread11¢mid 52¢
  • bid546¢
  • bid1445¢
  • bid20044¢
  • bid4119¢
  • bid5918¢
  • bid34616¢
  • bid100
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Pennsylvania legislature has adopted new, qualifying congressional district maps after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

These maps must be: Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; AND Not enjoined, vacated, stayed, or struck down in full by any court with jurisdiction over congressional redistricting in Pennsylvania as of the Expiration Date; AND In effect for use in the first scheduled federal election after its adoption For clarity: Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will resolve to YES if they are ultimately in effect by the Expiration Date Maps that are completely redrawn by a court or special master will resolve to NO Maps that are withdrawn by the Legislature before implementation will resolve to NO If no new maps are adopted by Nov 7, 2028, the market will resolve to NO

opened
May 11 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXREDISTRICTING-28-PA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 10 trades, 9% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago45¢10bought no
15d ago45¢2bought no
25d ago48¢9.8bought no
25d ago48¢5bought no
25d ago54¢15bought yes
1mo ago98¢7bought yes
2mo ago48¢2bought no
2mo ago51¢100bought no
2mo ago52¢5bought no
2mo ago50¢90bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.