Riemann Hypothesis resolution·closes in 2mo

Will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved before 2027?

YES means Before 2027

24h volume
0
2,830 lifetime
Open interest
2,272
+0 over 7d
Spread
2¢
1,376 × 10 at the touch
24h range
–
37 recent trades
Chance of YES
9%

A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
91%

costs 92¢

YES bid / ask
8¢ / 10¢
NO bid / ask
90¢ / 92¢
Recent buying41% YES · 59% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volOct 29Nov 5

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask33985¢
  • ask15560¢
  • ask32455¢
  • ask4851¢
  • ask10050¢
  • ask20013¢
  • ask5.4511¢
  • ask1010¢
spread2¢mid 9¢
  • bid1,3768¢
  • bid2045¢
  • bid3504¢
  • bid4613¢
  • bid2682¢
  • bid1451¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Riemann Hypothesis in its official Clay Mathematics Institute formulation is resolved before Jan 1, 2027 under the Payout Criterion and that resolution has not been retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, or rescinded prior to the Expiration time, then the market resolves to Yes.

For purposes of this Contract, Riemann Hypothesis in its official Clay Mathematics Institute formulation is considered resolved if at least one of the following occurs and has not been retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, or rescinded prior to the Expiration time: A peer-reviewed article presenting a complete proof, a complete disproof, or a counterexample establishing the falsity of the conjecture, in the conjecture's original form as specified by the Exchange at Issuance, has been published in one or more Source Agency peer-reviewed journals. A recognized authoritative body for the academic field of the conjecture, including but not limited to Annals of Mathematics, the American Mathematical Society, the International Mathematical Union, a national academy of sciences, the Nobel Foundation, or an equivalent governing or recognition body for the relevant academic field, has officially recognized in a written communication that the conjecture, in its original form as specified by the Exchange at Issuance, has been resolved by reference to a specific written work. At least two Source Agencies have published reporting describing the conjecture, in its original form as specified by the Exchange at Issuance, as having been proven, disproven, or otherwise resolved by reference to a specific publicly available written work, and no Source Agency has, prior to the Expiration time, published reporting that such written work has been formally retracted by its author(s) or by any publishing journal, has been formally withdrawn or repudiated by its author(s), or contains an identified error that has not been publicly corrected or addressed by the author(s) in a subsequent publication or amendment.

opened
Sep 23 · 10:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 7, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 7, 2040 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXRIEMANNRES-40-27JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 37 trades, 41% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago9¢5.45bought no
8d ago8¢13bought no
13d ago10¢5bought no
13d ago10¢5bought no
15d ago13¢10bought yes
15d ago14¢9.76bought yes
15d ago12¢15bought yes
15d ago12¢5bought yes
15d ago13¢15bought yes
16d ago8¢26bought no
22d ago12¢11bought yes
22d ago12¢5bought yes
22d ago12¢4.08bought yes
25d ago9¢11bought no
26d ago8¢5bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.