Rivian KPI·closes in 19mo

Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 46000 total vehicles delivered in 2026?

YES means Above 46000

24h volume
3
14.7k lifetime
Open interest
2,689
Spread
200 × 5 at the touch
24h range
86¢ – 86¢
49 recent trades
Chance of YES
86%

A YES contract costs 91¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
14%

costs 10¢

YES bid / ask
90¢ / 91¢
NO bid / ask
/ 10¢
24h low 86¢24h high 86¢
Recent buying45% YES · 55% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,00598¢
  • ask15093¢
  • ask591¢
spreadmid 91¢
  • bid20090¢
  • bid10087¢
  • bid386¢
  • bid5055¢
  • bid47451¢
  • bid50050¢
  • bid1,50025¢
  • bid50010¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Rivian Automotive Inc. reports Above 46000 total vehicles delivered in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 23 · 3:13 PM UTC
closes
Mar 31, 2028 · 5:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 31, 2028 · 9:00 PM UTC
floor
46000
ticker
KXRIVNA-28JANDELIV-46000
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 49 trades, 45% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
22h ago86¢3bought yes
1d ago86¢1bought yes
1d ago86¢1bought yes
1d ago86¢1bought yes
1d ago88¢100bought no
2d ago94¢5bought no
2d ago94¢95bought no
3d ago91¢100bought no
3d ago92¢5bought no
4d ago92¢100bought no
6d ago90¢200bought yes
8d ago85¢100bought no
9d ago87¢1bought yes
17d ago83¢200bought no
17d ago84¢100bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.