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Republican presidential primaries·closes in 26mo

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

YES means Marco Rubio

24h volume
0
1.4 lifetime
Open interest
1.4
Spread
7¢
1.4 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
1 recent trades
Chance of YES
34%

A YES contract costs 35¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
66%

costs 72¢

YES bid / ask
28¢ / 35¢
NO bid / ask
65¢ / 72¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5199¢
  • ask1,90391¢
  • ask25090¢
  • ask45036¢
  • ask535¢
spread7¢mid 32¢
  • bid1.428¢
  • bid20027¢
  • bid337¢
  • bid486¢
  • bid8862¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Marco Rubio wins the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 24 · 10:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 10:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 10:00 AM UTC
ticker
KXRPRESPRIMARY-28IA-MRUB
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 1 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
27d ago34¢1.4bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.