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Rubio announces presidential run by...?·closes in 3mo

Will Marco Rubio announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2027

24h volume
0
586 lifetime
Open interest
424
+0 over 24h
Spread
9¢
5 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
12 recent trades
Chance of YES
13%

A YES contract costs 11¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
87%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 11¢
NO bid / ask
89¢ / 98¢
Recent buying99% YES · 1% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,000100¢
  • ask5099¢
  • ask2,50493¢
  • ask29893¢
  • ask427¢
  • ask10012¢
  • ask20011¢
spread9¢mid 7¢
  • bid52¢
  • bid2002¢
  • bid1511¢
  • bid3001¢
  • bid1,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Marco Rubio has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 7 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXRUBIORUN-28-27JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 12 trades, 99% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
10d ago13¢3.48bought yes
10d ago12¢1.57bought yes
16d ago3¢0.45bought no
18d ago3¢1.12bought no
20d ago10¢2.06bought yes
25d ago9¢0.08bought yes
27d ago4¢0.08bought no
29d ago11¢0.08bought yes
1mo ago11¢56bought yes
2mo ago8¢100bought yes
2mo ago6¢100bought yes
2mo ago6¢50bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.