Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?
YES means Before 2027
- 24h volume
- 3,454
- 275.8k lifetime
- Open interest
- 106.9k
- +19.7k over 7d
- Spread
- 2¢
- 713 × 4,122 at the touch
- 24h range
- 3¢ – 9¢
- 50 recent trades
A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 97¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask213¢
- ask1,01711¢
- ask1,51310¢
- ask1,4829¢
- ask15.0k8¢
- ask10.0k7¢
- ask10.4k6¢
- ask4,1225¢
- bid7133¢
- bid2,6452¢
- bid28.2k1¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- opened
- Oct 18, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC
- ticker
- KXSATOSHIBTCYEAR-27
This event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
This is the only market in Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin before 2027?.
Recent trades
Over the last 50 trades, 93% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2m ago | 4¢ | 1.28 | bought yes |
| 2m ago | 5¢ | 2.7 | bought yes |
| 2m ago | 3¢ | 3.98 | bought no |
| 2m ago | 4¢ | 4.04 | bought yes |
| 2m ago | 3¢ | 4.04 | bought no |
| 2m ago | 4¢ | 4.11 | bought yes |
| 2m ago | 3¢ | 4.11 | bought no |
| 6m ago | 5¢ | 3.92 | bought yes |
| 6m ago | 4¢ | 1.35 | bought no |
| 6m ago | 3¢ | 2.57 | bought no |
| 6m ago | 5¢ | 4 | bought yes |
| 6m ago | 4¢ | 4 | bought no |
| 7m ago | 5¢ | 4.08 | bought yes |
| 7m ago | 4¢ | 4.08 | bought no |
| 24m ago | 5¢ | 188 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.