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Satoshi move bitcoin by year? ·closes in 3mo

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?

YES means Before 2027

24h volume
3,535
275.9k lifetime
Open interest
107.0k
Spread
1¢
551 × 4.15 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 97¢
Recent buying90% YES · 10% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,01711¢
  • ask1,51310¢
  • ask1,4829¢
  • ask15.0k8¢
  • ask10.0k7¢
  • ask10.0k6¢
  • ask4,1265¢
  • ask4.154¢
spread1¢mid 4¢
  • bid5513¢
  • bid2,6452¢
  • bid28.2k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 18, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC
ticker
KXSATOSHIBTCYEAR-27
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin before 2027?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 90% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago4¢3.89bought yes
2h ago3¢3.89bought no
2h ago4¢3.96bought yes
2h ago3¢3.96bought no
2h ago4¢1.54bought yes
2h ago5¢41bought yes
2h ago4¢3.89bought yes
2h ago3¢3.89bought no
2h ago4¢3.96bought yes
2h ago3¢3.96bought no
2h ago5¢3.6bought yes
2h ago4¢3.6bought no
2h ago5¢3.66bought yes
2h ago4¢3.66bought no
2h ago5¢3.72bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.