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Chuck Schumer run for re-election·closes in 19mo

Will Chuck Schumer announce a run for Senate in 2028?

YES means Yes

24h volume
0
3,153 lifetime
Open interest
1,738
+0 over 30d
Spread
25¢
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
25 recent trades
Chance of YES
35%

A YES contract costs 32¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
65%

costs 93¢

YES bid / ask
7¢ / 32¢
NO bid / ask
68¢ / 93¢
Recent buying0% YES · 100% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢40¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,03670¢
  • ask1,33569¢
  • ask3,26243¢
  • ask15240¢
  • ask9539¢
  • ask20034¢
  • ask533¢
  • ask532¢
spread25¢mid 19¢
  • bid57¢
  • bid55¢
  • bid603¢
  • bid2102¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Chuck Schumer has announced that they will run for Senate in 2028 before Apr 6, 2028, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 11 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Apr 6, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Apr 6, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSCHUMERRUN-28-28APR06
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Chuck Schumer run for reelection?.

Recent trades

Over the last 25 trades, 0% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago36¢5bought no
7d ago35¢195bought no
1mo ago32¢24bought no
1mo ago32¢210bought no
1mo ago32¢100bought no
1mo ago32¢40bought no
1mo ago32¢25bought no
1mo ago32¢15bought no
1mo ago41¢200bought no
1mo ago42¢1bought yes
1mo ago30¢272bought no
1mo ago31¢12bought no
1mo ago32¢16bought no
1mo ago38¢100bought no
1mo ago45¢200bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.