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Will SCOTUS recognize a right to possess AR-15-style rifles?·closes in 40mo

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Cutberto Viramontes, Eddie Grant Jr., other individual plaintiffs in Viramontes v. Cook County and Grant v. Higgins

YES means Before Jan 1, 2030

24h volume
21
5,087 lifetime
Open interest
1,198
+6.94 over 7d
Spread
7¢
5 × 29 at the touch
24h range
35¢ – 83¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
81%+3

A YES contract costs 82¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
19%

costs 25¢

YES bid / ask
75¢ / 82¢
NO bid / ask
18¢ / 25¢
24h low 35¢24h high 83¢
Recent buying59% YES · 41% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢75¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask8,17494¢
  • ask10.0k93¢
  • ask2,21692¢
  • ask18391¢
  • ask790¢
  • ask586¢
  • ask20583¢
  • ask2982¢
spread7¢mid 79¢
  • bid575¢
  • bid5.4774¢
  • bid20073¢
  • bid4.5134¢
  • bid23929¢
  • bid35228¢
  • bid3.6526¢
  • bid9121¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Supreme Court, in Viramontes v. Cook County and Grant v. Higgins, rules the Second and Fourteenth Amendments guarantee a right to possess AR-15-platform and similar semiautomatic rifles, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has issued a decision holding that the Second and Fourteenth Amendments guarantee the right to possess AR-15-platform and similar semiautomatic rifles, after Issuance and before January 1, 2030. The market resolves to No if the Court holds that those Amendments do not guarantee such a right. A decision recognizing the right and remanding for further proceedings resolves to Yes; if the cases are dismissed, found improvidently granted, or remanded without deciding whether the asserted constitutional right exists, the market resolves to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 30 · 9:45 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSCOTUSAR15-30JAN
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will SCOTUS recognize a right to possess AR-15-style rifles?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 59% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6h ago81¢1.97bought yes
7h ago35¢4.49bought no
8h ago83¢5bought yes
8h ago82¢5bought no
8h ago82¢5bought yes
5d ago78¢3.06bought no
5d ago79¢5bought no
5d ago79¢5bought no
9d ago85¢29bought yes
10d ago78¢2.49bought no
13d ago84¢76bought yes
14d ago84¢1.17bought yes
14d ago83¢12bought yes
15d ago83¢60bought yes
15d ago82¢6.02bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.