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Supreme Court decisions·closes in 23mo

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of United States Department of the Air Force in Department of the Air Force v. Prutehi Guahan

YES means Before Aug 1, 2028

24h volume
0
0.24 lifetime
Open interest
0
Spread
10¢
200 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
2 recent trades
Chance of YES
71%

A YES contract costs 80¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
29%

costs 30¢

YES bid / ask
70¢ / 80¢
NO bid / ask
20¢ / 30¢
Recent buying50% YES · 50% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,72696¢
  • ask96095¢
  • ask22494¢
  • ask4693¢
  • ask11991¢
  • ask8390¢
  • ask8289¢
  • ask20080¢
spread10¢mid 75¢
  • bid20070¢
  • bid24218¢
  • bid54517¢
  • bid53¢
  • bid162¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Supreme Court, in Department of the Air Force v. Prutehi Guahan, rules a federal RCRA permit-renewal application is not final agency action immediately reviewable under the Administrative Procedure Act, or that the federal government need not complete NEPA review before submitting such an application, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled, in Department of the Air Force v. Prutehi Guahan, either that the federal government’s submission of a RCRA permit-renewal application to a state or territorial regulator is not “final agency action” immediately reviewable under the Administrative Procedure Act, or that the federal government is not required to comply with NEPA’s general environmental-review procedures before submitting a permit-renewal application under RCRA. A merits holding establishing either proposition resolves the market to Yes, whether or not the Court reaches the other question. The market resolves to No if the Court establishes neither proposition. If the case is dismissed as improvidently granted, dismissed, or remanded or otherwise disposed of without a merits holding establishing either proposition before August 1, 2028, the market resolves to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 24 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Aug 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Aug 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSCOTUSCASE-DEPPRU28
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will SCOTUS bar the immediate NEPA challenge to the Air Force’s Guam hazardous-waste permit application?.

Recent trades

Over the last 2 trades, 50% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2mo ago71¢0.12bought no
2mo ago79¢0.12bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.