Supreme Court decisions·closes in 23mo

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Department of Labor in Department of Labor v. Sun Valley Orchards, LLC

YES means Before Aug 1, 2028

24h volume
0
395 lifetime
Open interest
395
Spread
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
5 recent trades
Chance of YES
15%

A YES contract costs 22¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 85¢

YES bid / ask
15¢ / 22¢
NO bid / ask
78¢ / 85¢
Recent buying0% YES · 100% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1661¢
  • ask27859¢
  • ask4358¢
  • ask2033¢
  • ask3531¢
  • ask20024¢
  • ask1523¢
  • ask522¢
spreadmid 19¢
  • bid515¢
  • bid20014¢
  • bid35
  • bid50
  • bid367
  • bid50
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Supreme Court, in Department of Labor v. Sun Valley Orchards, LLC, rules federal law authorizes the Department of Labor to adjudicate proceedings imposing monetary remedies for violations of H-2A employment conditions and that Article III permits those agency adjudications, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled that 8 U.S.C. § 1188(g)(2) authorizes the Department of Labor to adjudicate proceedings to collect monetary remedies from employers alleged to have violated the terms and conditions of employment of H-2A workers or domestic workers in corresponding employment, and that Article III does not preclude the Department from conducting those adjudications, after Issuance and before August 1, 2028. The market resolves to No if the Court rules either that § 1188(g)(2) does not authorize such adjudications or that Article III precludes them. If the case is dismissed, found improvidently granted, or remanded without a merits ruling establishing both statutory authorization and constitutional permissibility, the market resolves to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 24 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Aug 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Aug 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSCOTUSCASE-DOLSUN28
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will SCOTUS let the Labor Department impose H-2A monetary remedies through agency proceedings?.

Recent trades

Over the last 5 trades, 0% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago15¢200bought no
11d ago31¢15bought no
17d ago32¢175bought no
17d ago33¢5bought no
1mo ago40¢0.11bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.