Supreme Court decisions·closes in 23mo

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Daniel Grand in Grand v. City of University Heights

YES means Before Aug 1, 2028

24h volume
0
821 lifetime
Open interest
0.31
+0 over 7d
Spread
10¢
200 × 200 at the touch
24h range
Chance of YES
85%

A YES contract costs 93¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
15%

costs 17¢

YES bid / ask
83¢ / 93¢
NO bid / ask
/ 17¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 15Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Supreme Court, in Grand v. City of University Heights, rules the land-use finality requirement does not displace a First Amendment chilling-effect claim based on credible government threats that deter religious exercise, worship, or assembly, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled that Williamson County’s land-use finality requirement does not displace the First Amendment’s chilling-effect doctrine when a plaintiff alleges that credible government threats before and after a Planning Commission meeting chilled religious exercise, worship, or assembly, such that the claim is not barred solely because the plaintiff lacked a final land-use decision, after Issuance and before August 1, 2028. The market resolves to No if the Court holds that the finality requirement displaces or bars such a claim, or if the case is dismissed, dismissed as improvidently granted, or remanded without resolving that merits question.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 24 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Aug 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Aug 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSCOTUSCASE-GRACIT28
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will SCOTUS allow religious chilling-effect claims without a final land-use decision?.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.