Supreme Court decisions·closes in 23mo

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Michael Salazar in Salazar v. Paramount Global

YES means Before Aug 1, 2028

24h volume
0
8.72 lifetime
Open interest
4.36
Spread
10¢
200 × 200 at the touch
24h range
2 recent trades
Chance of YES
37%

A YES contract costs 45¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
63%

costs 65¢

YES bid / ask
35¢ / 45¢
NO bid / ask
55¢ / 65¢
Recent buying50% YES · 50% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask44893¢
  • ask30289¢
  • ask1,40287¢
  • ask20086¢
  • ask11872¢
  • ask21071¢
  • ask5070¢
  • ask20045¢
spread10¢mid 40¢
  • bid20035¢
  • bid247
  • bid418
  • bid5
  • bid50
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Supreme Court, in Salazar v. Paramount Global, rules the VPPA’s definition of “consumer” includes subscribers to any goods or services from a video tape service provider, not only its audiovisual goods or services, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled, in Salazar v. Paramount Global, that the phrase “goods or services from a video tape service provider” in the Video Privacy Protection Act’s definition of “consumer” refers to all of that provider’s goods or services and is not limited to its audiovisual goods or services, after Issuance and before August 1, 2028. A ruling that the phrase covers only audiovisual goods or services resolves to No. If the case is dismissed, found improvidently granted, or remanded without resolving this interpretive question on the merits, the market resolves to No; a remand accompanying the qualifying merits holding resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 24 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Aug 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Aug 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSCOTUSCASE-SALPAR28
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will SCOTUS count subscribers to a video provider’s non-video offerings as VPPA consumers?.

Recent trades

Over the last 2 trades, 50% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago37¢4.36bought no
2mo ago44¢4.36bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.