Supreme Court decisions·closes in 23mo

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Suncor Energy (U.S.A.) Inc in Suncor Energy (U.S.A.) Inc. v. Commissioners of Boulder County

YES means Before Aug 1, 2028

24h volume
0
803 lifetime
Open interest
2.72
−397 over 90d
Spread
5 × 200 at the touch
24h range
6 recent trades
Chance of YES
72%

A YES contract costs 73¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
28%

costs 36¢

YES bid / ask
64¢ / 73¢
NO bid / ask
27¢ / 36¢
Recent buying75% YES · 25% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

60¢70¢80¢volJul 23Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask15296¢
  • ask1,46695¢
  • ask1,79994¢
  • ask27892¢
  • ask16486¢
  • ask21985¢
  • ask20073¢
spreadmid 69¢
  • bid564¢
  • bid20063¢
  • bid25012¢
  • bid70411¢
  • bid50
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Supreme Court, in Suncor Energy (U.S.A.) Inc. v. Commissioners of Boulder County, rules that federal law precludes Boulder County and the City of Boulder’s state-law claims seeking relief for injuries allegedly caused by interstate and international greenhouse-gas emissions’ effects on the global climate, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled that federal law precludes the state-law claims at issue seeking relief for injuries allegedly caused by the effects of interstate and international greenhouse-gas emissions on the global climate, after Issuance and before August 1, 2028. A ruling only that the Court has statutory and Article III jurisdiction does not satisfy the criterion. The market resolves to No if the Court rules that federal law does not preclude those claims, holds that it lacks jurisdiction, dismisses the writ as improvidently granted, or otherwise dismisses or remands the case without ruling on the merits described above.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 22 · 8:59 PM UTC
closes
Aug 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSCOTUSCASE-SUNCOM26
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will the Supreme Court bar Boulder’s state-law climate claims against Suncor and Exxon?.

Recent trades

Over the last 6 trades, 75% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
27d ago72¢400bought yes
1mo ago72¢2.72bought yes
2mo ago67¢0.13bought no
2mo ago75¢0.13bought yes
2mo ago71¢200bought no
2mo ago75¢200bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.