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Who will win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?·closes in 28mo

Will Brian Schatz win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

YES means Brian Schatz

24h volume
0
21.3k lifetime
Open interest
10.7k
+0 over 7d
Spread
2¢
50 × 1 at the touch
24h range
–
15 recent trades
Chance of YES
11%

A YES contract costs 11¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
89%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask
9¢ / 11¢
NO bid / ask
89¢ / 91¢
Recent buying78% YES · 22% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Brian Schatz wins the next Senate Democratic Leader election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. For referendums, "Yes" and "No" are the options. For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) is the winner. Markets resolve based on official results, not exit polls or projections. If elections are postponed beyond the expiration date, markets resolve to No. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 25, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSENATEDEMLEAD-28JAN01-BSCH
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 110¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 15 trades, 78% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6d ago11¢51bought yes
12d ago12¢78bought yes
12d ago11¢59bought yes
24d ago10¢377bought yes
24d ago9¢100bought yes
1mo ago13¢1.3bought yes
1mo ago13¢1.81bought yes
1mo ago0¢81bought no
1mo ago12¢5bought yes
1mo ago12¢5bought yes
1mo ago13¢237bought yes
1mo ago7¢5bought no
1mo ago7¢176bought no
1mo ago13¢181bought yes
2mo ago6¢50bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.